What people burdened with loans? As it turned out, the pandemic coronavirus, the borrowers have informed the banks about the inability to pay debts. Some of them delay or reduce salary, whose company suspends operations indefinitely, someone refers to the isolation, fear to go outside or even says that is sick. Yes, such examples are few, but they are. It is not only about reducing the solvency of the Russians on the background of the epidemic. And not only about the risks for the consumer lending market. Coronavirus, undermining the foundations of the human world, poses intractable challenges to all banks, their customers, the Central Bank, the current banking legislation.
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At the moment, cases of infection were recorded only 0.0005% of the population of Russia, and in many regions they are rare, said the President of the National Association of professional collection agencies (NAPCA) Elman Mehdiyev. Overall, according to the organization, for reasons related to the coronavirus, have less than 1% of all failures in the repayment of debt.
However, it is also clear that the situation is changing literally every hour. Now be closed (or already closed) restaurants, shopping centers, cinemas, libraries, sports centers and other public institutions. All this — the service sector, which, according to statistics, employ more than a quarter of borrowers. Accordingly, they are at risk in the first place.
“Indeed, recently, the debtors began to refer to the epidemic,” admits in the commentary for the “MK” head of credit risk retail segment, Raiffeisenbank Alexey Kramarsky. According to him, such cases are less than 1%. In General, customers are informed that we are mode two-week isolation, and then return the money. Clients who have funds but there is no possibility to reach the office, the Bank focuses on payment for remote channels. Those who experienced a temporary decrease in income, may apply for restructuring. In General, in conversation with the debtor, the operator always asks about the reason of non-payment.
The Bank of Russia recommends banks to provide mortgage holidays to borrowers with officially confirmed disease caused by a coronavirus. About this, the Central Bank said on its website. The regulator proposes to creditors to communicate with such clients by phone, and the last is to provide all identity documents disease after recovery. The presence of COVID-19 may be the basis for the restructuring of consumer credits as well as cancellation of accrual of penalties for failure to fulfill obligations under the contract.
Interviewed by “MK” experts assess the situation as extremely alarming. According to financial analyst FxPro Alexander kuptsikevich companies, the increase in the proportion of bad loans turns to banks losses and the need to build additional reserves to cover the damage. As citizens, they face stricter standards and criteria for banks issuing consumer loans. And this “crackdown” will happen at the most inopportune moment, when people urgently need the money to survive the quarantine. In addition, the delay lead to an increase in interest rates.
“Because of the failure of the purchasing power of Russian banks can cover a wave of defaults, IAC says senior analyst “Alpari” Anna Bodrov. — Need to decide something at the Federal level: if people have lost their jobs amid mass layoffs business because of quarantine measures, it is necessary to help or provide financial vacations, or to restructure debt optimal — for a person, not Bank way.”
Slows down the entire economy, radically changing the laws and rules of the game — that’s the most toxic of all that is happening, says investment Manager at “OTKRITIE Broker” Timur Nigmatullin. In his view, the pandemic causes on the banking system a double whammy. On the one hand, banks may face an outflow of deposits, as natural persons, small and medium businesses need to cover their cash gaps. On the other hand, banks will not be able to attract funding on the interbank and bond market. At the same time they have deteriorating asset quality, and it is a challenge to cope with which not everyone is capable of.